Draft trade targets: Overachievers vs underachievers

We take a look at the players you should be looking to trade or pick up cheaply in Draft.

Draft Breakdown

Today we look at the players that you should consider targeting to trade into or out of your Draft team.

Trading in Draft is about maximising value by trading players that are overperforming and targeting players that are underperforming.

*Scroll down to the bottom of the page for a key on all SuperCoach relevant abbreviations.

Sign up to SC Playbook for detailed SuperCoach analysis from hundreds of additional articles throughout the 2020 NRL season.

Embed from Getty Images

Underperforming players

There are some obvious underperforming guns that I don’t need to go into detail with such as Cook, Munster and RTS.

If you can convince someone that these guys won’t bounce back, give me a spot in that numpty league.

I will just touch on some of the more interesting underperforming players.

Latrell Mitchell (CTW/FLB)

Enough has been said about Latrell that he may fall into the obvious underperforming guns.

However, he is worth some detail because his scores have been particularly bad averaging 20 points for the first two rounds and some SuperCoaches might be impatient with him given the shortened season.

We all know that Latrell will get better as the season goes on and he finds his match fitness.

This is even historically correct as a goal kicking centre – In 2019 he averaged 37PPG in the first two games and in 2018 he averaged 38PPG, he went on to post monster averages of 70PPG and 64PPG by the end of the season.

Coaches that own Latrell in the bottom half of the season may not have the time to hold him until he comes good and it is worth preying on that for a trade.

I also think he has looked a lot fitter in training photos after the COVID-19 break.

Braidon Burns (CTW)

Burns has averaged a disappointing 19PPG this year and was subbed off to make way for Latrell in his second game.

Like Latrell, he has had a tough few matches but has shown better output than what he is currently delivering.

Once Latrell can play 80 minutes at fullback and Cody Walker is back he should be producing a much better score.

The break would have also helped his dodgy hammys.

You can probably get a very good deal on him at the moment and he is worth the gamble.

Embed from Getty Images

Brian To’o (CTW)

To’o has started the year pretty slow with an average of 29PPG and his wing partner, Mansour, is getting all the hype.

Last year To’o averaged 57PPG with 33BPG and some nice tackle breaks.

He still runs the ball as hard as he did last year, he is playing on Cleary’s side and he is a fantastic finisher.

I expect his average to go up significantly and should be targeted for trade value – throw out a few ‘second year syndrome’ lines.

Reuben Garrick (CTW)

Garrick is another underperforming CTW averaging 28PPG, which should improve.

Garrick doesn’t have the strongest base stats, but gets his points from kicking goals.

Manly had two tough, low scoring games to start the season but will now finish the season with the Bulldogs, Titans and Warriors.

Garrick is a great target for Draft finals and could make all the difference.

Embed from Getty Images

Blake Brailey (HOK) and Jack Willams (2RF)

These two are a bit controversial as they could easily backfire but could be worth the gamble if it pays off.

Brailey and Williams both saw great minutes in the opening rounds but had disappointing scores.

The Sharks have been developing both these players for a number of years and have invested heavily in them.

Connor Tracey on the bench is a bit of a worry for Brailey’s minutes but has been there in both the opening rounds.

Williams is getting an average 54MPG for a shocking 34PPG in the middle – surely he can only improve, as his work rate hasn’t been an issue in the past.

You could get some great value out of these two players if you want to put the wet game against Souths and tough match-up against the Storm down as anomalies.

I have some doubt with these two players but given their current value, they are worth the gamble for the low price you could get for them.

Embed from Getty Images

Overperforming players

Kotoni Staggs (CTW)

Staggs is averaging an impressive 87PPG to start the season.

Staggs is a great player but he isn’t going to hold anywhere near that average, in fact without the kicking he probably falls outside the top 8 CTWs by the end of the year.

He is a player getting a lot of hype at the moment as many classic players will be trading him in.

Now is the time to capitalise on his performance, especially if you are stacked at CTW.

Angus Crichton (2RF)

Crichton has been fortunate enough to get two starting gigs in the backrow due to Cordner’s absence and now Aubusson’s temporary absence.

The full-strength Roosters will see him move back to a bench role.

If you can pull the wool over some numpty’s eyes, you’ve got to offload him before he goes to the bench.

Embed from Getty Images

Luciano Leilua (2RF)

Lucy has started the year with a 72PPG average and playing 80MPG.

He has scored a try in both games and it’s only downhill from here.

His defence may see him play reduced minutes or even drop back to a bench role.

Try to squeeze the value out of him before Madge changes things up.

Benji Marshall (5/8)

Another Tiger that has started the season well, averaging 71PPG.

Marshall played a dominate role in the Tigers opening rounds with Luke Brooks out with injury.

Brooks will demand the ball now he is back and it’s only a matter of time before Marshall’s dodgy hamstrings see him give up the kicking duties or miss game time.

SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY

MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM= Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference

BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.

*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *