Squad Breakdown: Round 3 team insights

We analyse all the key SuperCoach ins and outs following the release of Round 3 teams.

Squad Breakdown

It’s been a long wait for a game of footy, 67 days to be exact, but on Thursday night our prayers will be answered as rugby league returns to our lives.

Things have changed.

There’s a new draw, new, venues, new-look squads and a stack of changes to NRL SuperCoach.

*Scroll down to the bottom of the page for a key on all SuperCoach relevant abbreviations.

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The latter is the one we SuperCoaches care about most, with five trades available for the resumption of the season.

Below we’ve analysed the teams ahead of Round 3 to help guide you through the super trade week.

During the postponed season we’ve had time to assess every starting player in all NRL squads, so if you’re looking for further analysis on any player, check out our breakdowns here.

Let’s get stuck into it…

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BRONCOS v EELS

Thursday, 7.50pm, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

Broncos: 1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Corey Oates 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Darius Boyd 5. Jesse Arthars 6. Anthony Milford 7. Brodie Croft 8. Thomas Flegler 9. Jake Turpin 10. Payne Haas 11. Alex Glenn 12. Jamil Hopoate 13. Pat Carrigan 

Bench: 14. Herbie Farnworth 15. Joe Ofahengaue 16. Rhys Kennedy 17. Ethan Bullemor 

Reserves: 18. Tesi Niu 19. Xavier Coates 20. Tom Dearden 21. Matt Lodge

Analysis: Jamayne Isaako and Kotoni Staggs are both great buys. Both are set to make big cash with breakevens of -17 and -37 respectably, and may evolve into keepers. It’s hard to talk anyone out of either of the two. Anthony Milford is a nice POD in the halves, particularly playing behind that monster pack. However, Brisbane have a tough upcoming draw and there’s other halves in SuperCoach who are more proven in recent years. If you don’t own Payne Haas, move mountains to get him in immediately. Don’t expect him to continue playing 80 minutes with all their cattle returning, but a little rest will only do him good. Jamil Hopoate is a strong cheapie having been named in the back-row and is a reasonably safe play in 17s. Tom Flegler is a decent buy, but the likes of Emre Guler, Jamayne Taunoa-Brown and Toby Rudolf are far cheaper with less competition, although all mentioned have less overall job security. Matt Lodge is on the extended bench which is the worry. Pat Carrigan is highly regarded at Red Hill and should maintain decent minutes despite returning forwards. With Andrew McCullough out of the picture, Jake Turpin looms as a serious mid-range purchase at halfback. He’ll likely play 80 minutes at hooker and should produce decent scores. While he doesn’t have the immediate draw of Scott Drinkwater or breakeven, he’s a safer play in 17s.

Eels: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Blake Ferguson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Ryan Matterson 13. Marata Niukore

Bench: 14. Brad Takairangi 15. Ray Stone 16. Kane Evans 17. Peni Terepo 

Reserves: 18. Oregan Kaufusi 19. George Jennings 20. Jaeman Salmon 21. David Gower

Analysis: Parramatta have tough fixtures in coming weeks which is a blow for those who jumped on from Round 1 with their initially friendly early season draw. This makes Mitch Moses less appealing, although the big score from the Titans will sit in his rolling average for a few weeks. With Nathan Cleary out for two weeks, a trade to Moses makes sense. Wait for Maika Sivo and Blake Ferguson to bottom out before considering. Dylan Brown is an option in the halves following a 123 point effort against the Titans. He has a breakeven of -27 and will make decent cash. The concern is that he opposed Cartwright and Taylor in that game, so did he see more ball than he will during a regular outing? For me there’s better buys in the halves, including Moses. Ryan Matterson is an animal and boasts a big ceiling due to his attacking ability. He’s averaging 74PPG and at just 18% ownership should be strongly considered for anyone that already owns Jason Taumalolo.

COWBOYS v TITANS

Friday, 6pm, QCB Stadium, Townsville

Cowboys: 1. Valentine Holmes 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Justin O’Neill 4. Esan Marsters 5. Ben Hampton 6. Scott Drinkwater 7. Jake Clifford 8. Josh McGuire 9. Jake Granville 10. Jordan McLean 11. Mitchell Dunn 12. Coen Hess 13. Jason Taumalolo 

Bench: 14. Reece Robson 15. John Asiata 16. Shane Wright 17. Francis Molo 

Reserves: 18. Corey Jensen 19. Tom Gilbert 20. Tom Opacic 21. Reuben Cotter

Analysis: The Cowboys are licking their lips with the fixture against the hapless Titans. Don’t get tricky around Jason Taumalolo, he’ll probably bag a double this week and go huge, get him in. Valentine Holmes will benefit from the draw big time, especially while kicking goals if the Cowboys rack up a score against the Titans. With an average of 66PPG and breakeven of 41, he looks a solid buy on face value, but I believe he’ll be a level below the elite fullbacks for at least the next two months, despite the fact he could go huge this week. Scott Drinkwater has thrived in his move to the halves, averaging 72PPG leaving him with a breakeven of -34. I don’t believe he’ll even come close to evolving into a season long keeper, but he’ll make big coin in coming weeks then can be moved on to a returning Nathan Cleary. Esan Marsters impressed in the first two rounds with decent scores and a strong base, including 37 base in Round 1. Without the goal-kicking in a new outfit I’m not convinced he’s the CTW saviour everyone is predicting. With a breakeven of 24 he won’t rise much in coin. Despite this, his pedigree is far superior to the likes of popular buys Staggs, Yeo and Isaako so the potential to become a genuine keeper is far higher. Ben Hampton has a -37 breakeven and is a good CTW cheapie, but don’t play him in 17s (except for maybe Round 3 against the Titans), as he can go very low. Coen Hess has a -8 breakeven and is playing 80 minutes. He averaged 58PPG in 2017 and 2018, so there’s upside if anyone can fit him into a stacked 2RF position.

Titans: 1. Tyrone Roberts 2. Anthony Don 3. Dale Copley 4. Tyrone Peachey 5. Phillip Sami 6. Ash Taylor 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Nathan Peats 10. Sam Lisone 11. Kevin Proctor 12. Keegan Hipgrave 13. Jai Arrow 

Bench: 14. Erin Clark 15. Jai Whitbread 16. Jarrod Wallace 17. Shannon Boyd

Reserves: 18. Bryce Cartwright 19. Mitch Rein 20. Brian Kelly 21. Jonus Pearson

Analysis: The Titans lack of attacking ability makes it hard to even consider any backline players such as Ash Taylor and Phillip Sami (fullback to wing). Furthermore, there’s hardly a player without job security issues in the entire squad. The one and only obvious option is Jai Arrow who has had a mixed start to the year. He played reduced minutes in Round 1 due to illness, then played the entire 80 in Round 2 but produced just 56 points. With a breakeven of 62 we can afford to wait a few weeks and assess his regular game time under new coach Justin Holbrook. If he continues to play 80 he’ll be a must-have, so let’s just wait and see. Three middle forwards on the bench may pose a threat to minutes.

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ROOSTERS v RABBITOHS

Friday, 7.55pm, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney

Roosters: 1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Josh Morris 4. Joseph Manu 5. Brett Morris 6. Luke Keary 7. Kyle Flanagan 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Jake Friend 10. Isaac Liu 11. Boyd Cordner 12. Angus Crichton 13. Victor Radley 

Bench: 14. Sam Verrills 15. Sitili Tupouniua 16. Nat Butcher 17. Lindsay Collins

Reserves: 18. Siosiua Taukeiaho 19. Ryan Hall 20. Lachlan Lam 21. Poasa Faamausili 

Analysis: The Roosters have been dealt a savage draw to restart the competition and could well be 0-4 to start the season. James Tedesco has a breakeven of 115 and is simply a must-have when he bottoms out in a few weeks. He scored 85 in a 9-8 slugfest against Manly in Round 2 without a try or try-assist. Luke Keary is an amazing POD when he bottoms out in price and has an easier draw ahead of him. Siosiua Taukeiaho is a stunning omission out of the 17 and can be traded. Mitchell Aubusson is out due to family reasons, so don’t be tempted by Angus Crichton.

Rabbitohs: 1. Latrell Mitchell 2. Dane Gagai 3. Campbell Graham 4. Braidon Burns 5. Alex Johnston 6. Troy Dargan 7. Adam Reynolds 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Thomas Burgess 11. Jaydn Su’A 12. Cameron Murray 13. Liam Knight 

Bench: 14. Mark Nicholls 15. Ethan Lowe 16. Bayley Sironen 17. Patrick Mago

Reserves: 18. Bryson Goodwin 19. Tom Amone 20. James Roberts 21. Keaon Koloamatangi

Analysis: Latrell Mitchell, Braidon Burns, Damien Cook and Cody Walker are all sells. But every single one of them will be major options once bottoming out in price. Cam Murray has only been okay since moving to the edge, averaging 48PPG with 44BPG. He’s averaging 70MPG, up 10 minutes on last season. He hasn’t had any attacking stats, but they will come, although the loss of Cody Walker will hurt him. I’m holding, but luck hasn’t fallen his way during the break, so selling at the high price and triple figure breakeven makes sense. Liam Knight has been okay at best, but his 46MPG aren’t what we were hoping for when being named to start at lock. With five trade to utilise he’s on the chopping block. Jaydn Su’A is a serious option at just over $300k. He is averaging 47PPG, has a -1 breakeven and looks likely to be an 80 minute player going forward. A four forward bench is a huge concern for all forwards, with a utility back being named on the bench for Rounds 1 and 2. James Roberts has been named on an extended bench, interesting…

WARRIORS v DRAGONS

Saturday, 3pm, Central Coast Stadium

Warriors: 1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck 2. Patrick Herbert 3. Peta Hiku 4. Gerard Beale 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Blake Green 8. Lachlan Burr 9. Wayde Egan 10. Jamayne Taunoa-Brown 11. Isaiah Papali’i 12. Tohu Harris 13. Adam Blair 

Bench: 14. Karl Lawton 15. King Vuniyayawa 16. Agnatius Paasi 17. Eliesa Katoa

Reserves: 18. Chanel Harris-Tavita 20. Josh Curran 21. Adam Pompey 22. Jack Murchie

Analysis: Eliesa Katoa is a surprise omission to the bench. This is an obvious concern, however he did play strong minutes from the bench in Round 1. He’s still a buy, but not without some risk. It’s not advised to play him in 17s unless starting. The lengthy injuries to Leeson Ah Mau and Jazz Tevaga strengthen the claims of Jamayne Taunoa-Brown who is now starting. He could well increase on his 40MPG and is set to make plenty of money in coming weeks. It’s hard to get enthused about any other Warriors until we see them produce more than before the break. Chanel Harris-Tavita has been dropped from the 17 in favour of Kodi Nikorima.

Dragons: 1. Matt Dufty 2. Jordan Pereira 3. Brayden Wiliame 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Corey Norman 7. Ben Hunt 8. Korbin Sims 9. Cameron McInnes 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Tariq Sims 13. James Graham 

Bench: 14. Josh Kerr 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Tyrell Fuimaono 17. Euan Aitken 

Reserves: 18. Trent Merrin 19. Adam Clune 20. Jacob Host 21. Jackson Ford

Analysis: The Dragons have a nice run of fixtures ahead bringing a few of their players into some contention. Ben Hunt has been a super POD at stages in the past but can go fairly low, it’s a no from me. Cam McInnes is one to watch as a dual HOK/2RF as he returns from injury, but there’s no need to go early. Named on the bench, Tyrell Fuimaono looks a trap for mine. With a stacked forward pack and plenty of promising rookie forwards, it’s hard to see him getting game time without injuries. Keep a close eye on final team lists though as he’d be a late cheapie POD if finding himself in the starting line up. Tim Lafai has been dropped, Zac Lomax moves to centre. Lomax is a hold, but a risky play in 17s despite the nice match up.

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SHARKS v TIGERS

Saturday, 5.30pm, Bankwest Stadium, Sydney

Sharks: 1. Will Kennedy 2. Sione Katoa 3. Josh Dugan 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Ronaldo Mulitalo 6. Shaun Johnson 7. Chad Townsend 8. Andrew Fifita 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Aaron Woods 11. Briton Nikora 12. Wade Graham 13. Jack Williams 

Bench: 14. Connor Tracey 15. Braden Hamlin-Uele 16. Toby Rudolf 17. Scott Sorensen 

Reserves: 18. Billy Magoulias 19. Matt Moylan 20. Royce Hunt 21. Siosifa Talakai

Analysis: In fresh news, Bronson Xerri faces charges for alleged drug abuse. This means a reprieve for Sione Katoa who is a decent option with a negative breakeven. Cheapie Will Kennedy is at fullback for now, but Matt Moylan has been named on an extended bench. Mixed news for owners, while it means Kennedy isn’t a buy with Moylan looming. The Tigers looked leaky in defence in opening rounds, while the Sharks face the Cowboys in Round 4, very tempting… Ignore the tough contest against Melbourne, Shaun Johnson looked exceptional in Round 1 for 95 points. He’s the man to replace Nathan Cleary if you’re looking that way. Blayke Brailey is a hold and can be traded to Harry Grant in two weeks once making some hefty cash, don’t go early despite the wraps on the new Tigers hooker. Jack Williams is a sell despite an increase in minutes.

Tigers: 1. Adam Doueihi 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Joseph Leilua 4. Moses Mbye 5. Robert Jennings 6. Benji Marshall 7. Luke Brooks 8. Josh Aloiai 9. Harry Grant 10. Thomas Mikaele 11. Luke Garner 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Alex Twal

Bench: 14. Oliver Clark 15. Billy Walters 16. Chris Lawrence 17. Alex Seyfarth

Reserves: 18. Josh Reynolds 19. Matt Eisenhuth 20. Zane Musgrove 21. Michael Chee-Kam

Analysis: While the Sharks will be resilient in defence, the Tigers face the Titans in Round 4. David Nofoaluma has been immense in opening rounds against poor defensive outfits, averaging 84PPG. I can’t stomach paying that for a CTW who can go very low on any week. But on the flip side, you could lock in arguably the safest CTW in an unreliable position and not think twice for the rest of the season. Joey Leilua is a sell, while Luciano is a very serious buy. He’s averaging 72PPG in 80MPG in a strong start at his new club. While his scores have been inflated by two tries, he’s good enough with ball in hand that he’ll accrue attacking stats of some kind in most weeks. Get him in. Harry Grant is surrounded by enormous hype, but we get two free looks at him before he sees a price rise. Billy Walters has been named on the bench, so perhaps he gives Grant a spell? Elated owners can squeeze some coin out of Walters for a week if they choose to hold. Leak every cent out of Blayke Brailey then make the move to Grant Round 5. Alex Twal is averaging 75PPG with a mental 67BPG. In Round 1 he played 53 minutes, then he played 66 minutes in Round 2. If he maintains the latter minutes he’ll be a near must-have. We’ve seen him produce big numbers in the past, before regressing to his more regular 55PPG average. He’s been named at lock, with a utility and two second-rowers named on the bench, this is enormous! Strong buy…

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STORM v RAIDERS

Saturday, 7.35pm, AAMI Park, Melbourne

Storm: 1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. Suliasi Vunivalu 3. Marion Seve 4. Justin Olam 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. Cameron Munster 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Cameron Smith 10. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Dale Finucane 

Bench: 14. Brandon Smith 15. Tino Faasuamaleaui 16. Christian Welch 17. Max King

Reserves: 18. Tom Eisenhuth 19. Brenko Lee 20. Ryley Jacks 21. Darryn Schonig

Analysis: No Tui Kamikamica to be seen for those interested as a potential cheapie. Melbourne have encountered a tough draw with Canberra and South Sydney in coming weeks.Ryan Papenhuyzen has started relatively slow with a very respectable 54PPG, but he’s hardly registered an attacking stat. Huge scores are on the way, before he’ll likely be an upgrade to Tedesco/Trbojevic. That being said, with a breakeven of 48 and tough opposition awaiting you can afford to sit back for a week if you please. Cam Smith is averaging 70PPG and is likely to be among the top two hookers in the game once again. With the opposition, Cam Munster is a reluctant sell with a 41PPG average and breakeven of 115. With a stack of trades available he can be bought back in a month at likely a big discount.

Raiders: 1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2. Bailey Simonsson 3. Jarrod Croker 4. Curtis Scott 5. Nick Cotric 6. Jack Wighton 7. George Williams 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Dunamis Lui 11. Joseph Tapine 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Corey Horsburgh 

Bench: 14. Siliva Havili 15. Emre Guler 16. Iosia Soliola 17. Michael Oldfield 

Reserves: 18. Jordan Rapana 19. Matt Frawley 20. Kai O’Donnell 21. Tom Starling

Analysis: Incredibly it’s an unchanged 17 from Round 2 for the Raiders, with Jordan Rapana on the extended bench. No Bateman means Joe Tapine, Corey Horsburgh and Emre Guler all loom as great buys. They all have negative breakevens and should see near identical minutes to what they played prior to the break. Check out our squad analysis of the Raiders for more info on the trio. George Williams has impressed against rubbish opposition, with the Storm to provide his real test in the NRL. Owners can happily hold, but the likes of Drinkwater and Luai are likely better cash cows. Jack Wighton is not an elite SuperCoach player, avoid. Nick Cotric is averaging 56PPG and has a breakeven of 0. He has 23 tackle busts in the opening two rounds and is a serious mid-range POD at very low ownership. Keep a close eye on Curtis Scott in coming weeks having averaged 34BPG.

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PANTHERS v KNIGHTS

Sunday, 4.05pm, Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney

Panthers: 1. Caleb Aekins 2. Josh Mansour 3. Dean Whare 4. Brent Naden 5. Brian To’o 6. Matt Burton 7. Jarome Luai 8. James Tamou 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Kurt Capewell 13. Isaah Yeo

Bench: 14. Stephen Crichton 15. Zane Tetevano 16. Moses Leota 17. Liam Martin 

Reserves: 18. Mitch Kenny 19. Billy Burns 20. Kaide Ellis 21. Charlie Staines

Analysis: Josh Mansour is averaging 72PPG with an outrageous 39BPG. He hasn’t scored yet, but does have two try-assists to his name. To consider he’s done this while Kotoni Staggs (87PPG) has four tries makes you think. Be wary of the small sample size, but he may be back to his best. Jarome Luai should thrive in the absence of Nathan Cleary and will take over the goal-kicking duties. He’s now a brilliant cheapie and a relatively safe play in 17s. Api Koroisau should be in every squad and will take on more control in attack without Cleary. He’s a smokey option as captain. It’ll be incredibly interesting to see how Kurt Capewell’s return impacts the rotation of the forward pack. Put a line through Kikau and Fisher-Harris until we see it unfold. Isaah Yeo has a breakeven of -32, so you face a huge loss in value if waiting on him. I’m concerned he’s overhyped on a small sample size and may lose 15-20 minutes in the jam packed back-row. However, he’s available at CTW, so if he maintains 70+ minutes he may well evolve into a keeper in the position. There’s a case to ignore him, but it’s a big risk.

Knights: 1. Tex Hoy 2. Edrick Lee 3. Enari Tuala 4. Gehamat Shibasaki 5. Hymel Hunt 6. Kurt Mann 7. Mitchell Pearce 8. David Klemmer 9. Connor Watson 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 12. Sione Mata’utia 13. Herman Ese’ese 

Bench: 14. Chris Randall 15. Jacob Saifiti 16. Tim Glasby 17. Aidan Guerra 

Reserves: 18. Bradman Best 19. Brodie Jones 20. Mason Lino 21. Pasami Saulo

Analysis: Tex Hoy replaces Kalyn Ponga, Enari Tuala and Gehamat Shibaski retain their spot in the centres despite the return of Bradman Best. My advice for those trading Kalyn Ponga (one match suspension) is to hold, however my stance has lightened seeing as though he returns to clashes against Canberra and Melbourne. Regardless, he’s averaging 82PPG, has a low breakeven and is goal-kicking fulltime. Kurt Mann is averaging 54PPG, has a breakeven of -20 and is a very strong buy at $287k. Mitch Pearce is coming off a 106 in Round 2 and has a negative breakeven. Until he was given his upcoming draw he was an option having produced five try-assists in opening weeks. But it’ll be tough scoring against Canberra and Melbourne so there’s safer buys. David Klemmer’s minutes have dropped from 61MPG in 2019 to just 49MPG in 2020. This is a concern, however he’s scored at a ridiculous 1.45PPM. With a 47 breakeven, I want to see if he can maintain the output or if his minutes rise before considering. Connor Watson starts at hooker, but Andrew McCullough will take that role likely from next round.

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SEA EAGLES v BULLDOGS

Sunday, 6.30pm, Central Coast Stadium

Sea Eagles: 1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Jorge Taufua 3. Brad Parker 4. Moses Suli 5. Reuben Garrick 6. Dylan Walker 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Danny Levi 10. Martin Taupau 11. Joel Thompson 12. Curtis Sironen 13. Jake Trbojevic 

Bench: 14. Lachlan Croker 15. Corey Waddell 16. Sean Keppie 17. Taniela Paseka

Reserves: 18. Morgan Boyle 19. Jack Gosiewski 20. Tevita Funa 21. Brendan Elliot

Analysis: Despite a breakeven of 125, Tom Trbojevic is tempting against the Bulldogs. However, it seems a bit unnecessary, particularly as we know the Dogs can produce a resilient defensive line when they show up. Keep a close eye on Moses Suli in coming weeks who is averaging 36BPG. Marty Taupau and Addin Fonua-Blake are both an extremely close watch on how they’ve returned to fitness following the break. AFB looks like a particularly strong POD going forward.

Bulldogs: 1. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 2. Nick Meaney 3. Reimis Smith 4. Will Hopoate 5. Christian Crichton 6. Lachlan Lewis 7. Jack Cogger 8. Sauaso Sue 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Dylan Napa 11. Josh Jackson 12. Dean Britt 13. Adam Elliott 

Bench: 14. Jake Averillo 15. Renouf To’omaga 16. Raymond Faitala-Mariner 17. Ofahiki Ogden

Reserves: 19. Kerrod Holland 20. Aiden Tolman 21. Sione Katoa 22. Brandon Wakeham.

Analysis: Very little going on at the Dogs despite the break. Brandon Wakeham has been dropped for Jack Cogger and can be sold. Keep an eye on the minutes and output of Dean Britt who replaces the injured Joe Stimson in the second-row.

SUPERCOACH TERMINOLOGY KEY

MPG = Minutes per game

PPG = Points per game

PPM= Points per minute

BPG = Base per game (point accrued in tackles + runs + missed tackles)

POD = Point of difference

BREAKEVEN (B/E) = The score a player must record to earn a price rise.

*Please note all our stats are taken from the geniuses at nrlsupercoachstats.com

2 Responses to “Squad Breakdown: Round 3 team insights”

  1. GoodFaNuffinLosers

    I have a sneaky feeling that the Cowboys players could be a massive trap. With no Morgan, how much direction will they get from two inexperienced halves? The Titans have a strong pack with good depth on the back. LoLo should give the Cows go forward but I’m not sure that they can rack up a lot of points.

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